Communities are increasingly resisting the predatory collection of “zakat” or alms, which is a religious obligation in Islam, but is used by ISGS as a pretext for extortion and cattle theft ( UNHCR, 13 August 2020). The number of people killed by ISGS accounts for 66% of all deaths from organized political violence in Niger in 2021, and approximately 79% of the fatalities from violence targeting civilians (as of 11 June 2021). A series of large-scale killings targeting civilians of Djerma and Tuareg ethnicity resulted in most of the deaths reported. Since early 2021, the country has been marked by significant instability - militants believed to be ISGS have killed an estimated 390 people in various parts of the Tillaberi region and neighboring Tahoua. In 2020, state atrocities amid military operations alternated with mass atrocities by ISGS ( ACLED, ). This would in turn shrink the geographical space between the different theaters of conflict. The southward advance of jihadist militants into littoral states, and the increase in jihadist militant activities in countries bordering Niger such as Benin, risk strengthening links between groups in the Sahel and Nigeria. The rampant banditry that has destabilized the south-central region of Maradi along the border with Nigeria could allow jihadist militant groups to expand their areas of operation ( ICG, 29 April 2021). These include the Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahelian insurgency led by ISGS in northern Tillaberi, and JNIM activity in southwestern Tillaberi. However, the country faces several challenges. It is often assumed that Niger is less overrun by armed groups than its neighbors Mali and Burkina Faso. This can be seen clearly in Niger’s Tillaberi and Tahoua regions, the eastern parts of Burkina Faso, and central Mali. Renewed engagement in local conflicts has allowed jihadist militant groups to enlarge their scope of action, reassert their influence, remobilize, and gain resources to rebuild.

The report finds that both the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and the Al Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat Al Islam Wal Muslimin (JNIM) have shifted their efforts to geographic areas beyond the immediate reach of external forces in the face of military pressure in the tri-state border region (or Liptako-Gourma).

It concludes with a review of the wider Sahel region. This report looks at the patterns of violence in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali. Despite the transnational nature of the crisis, each country has experienced different patterns of violence and transformations in the midst of a protracted conflict. In 2021, the Sahel crisis entered its tenth year.

Map of current armed conflicts